The Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns collide Monday night at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, with Houston riding a hot streak and Phoenix missing its biggest star. The game, tipped for 9:40pm Eastern Time on November 24, 2025, comes with a twist: Kevin Durant is sidelined, flipping the script on what was supposed to be a Suns-led offensive showcase. Without him, Phoenix’s ceiling drops — and Houston’s young core sees daylight.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Record Suggests
At 11-4, Houston isn’t just trending upward — they’re playing with a swagger that’s hard to ignore. Their road offense has averaged 124.89 points over the last 10 away games, the highest in the league among teams playing more than five road contests. Meanwhile, Phoenix, at 11-7, has been a betting magnet — 12-5-0 against the spread this season — but their identity has been built on defense and Durant’s clutch scoring. His absence changes everything. Without him, the Suns’ offense drops nearly 10 points per game, and their ability to close out tight contests evaporates.The Numbers Don’t Lie — But They’re Confusing
FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Rockets as 4.5-point favorites at -245 moneyline, with the over/under set at 222.5. But here’s the oddity: public betting is 63% on Houston, yet iHeart.com’s projection model — which factored in pace, defensive efficiency, and recent scoring trends — predicts a 119-115 Rockets win. That’s a 4-point margin, right on the number. The computer also forecasts a total of 233.6 points, well above the book’s line. Meanwhile, Action Network’s data shows the Suns are 0-3 ATS when listed as 6.5-point underdogs or more. But here’s the twist: Mortgage Matchup Center has been a fortress for Phoenix against Houston. Scores24.live reports the Suns covered +9.5 in 8 of their last 9 home games against the Rockets. That’s not a fluke. That’s a pattern.And it’s not just home court. In their last seven meetings overall, Phoenix covered the spread six times — even when they were double-digit underdogs. The Rockets, meanwhile, have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight away games. That early aggression has been their signature. But Phoenix has held Houston under 111.5 points in their last six matchups. So which trend wins? The Rockets’ explosive road scoring? Or the Suns’ uncanny ability to absorb pressure and cover big spreads?
Alperen Sengun: The X-Factor No One’s Talking About
With Durant out, all eyes turn to Alperen Sengun. The Rockets’ 23-year-old center is averaging 24.1 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 7.2 assists over his last 10 games. FanDuel has him listed at OVER 40.5 points+rebounds+assists at -120 odds — a bet PreGame.com calls “a steal.” Sengun has hit that mark in five of his last seven games. Against Phoenix, he’s averaged 28.3 PRA over the last three meetings. If he gets 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists — a very achievable stat line — he clears the prop. And with the Suns missing Durant’s rim protection, Sengun’s post game could be unstoppable.Other props to watch: Amen Thompson at OVER 22.5 points (+100), and Reed Sheppard at OVER 12.5 points (-120). Sheppard’s been a revelation off the bench, averaging 14.2 points in his last five games — often against second units. With Phoenix’s depth thinning without Durant, Sheppard could exploit mismatches late.
The Suns’ Betting Paradox
Phoenix is 3-2 in their last five games — but only 3-4 ATS on the road. They’ve hit the over in just 2 of their last 5 games overall. Yet, in home games against Houston? They’ve gone over in 5 of their last 7. The contradiction is real. The Suns are a team that thrives under pressure — but only when Durant is orchestrating. Without him, they’re more like a team that survives than one that dominates. Their 0-3 record ATS as 6.5+ point underdogs isn’t a fluke. It’s a signal. But their historical dominance against Houston in Phoenix? That’s a ghost from another season.What’s Next? The Ripple Effect
If Houston wins outright — and covers — it’s a statement. They’d be 12-4 on the road, with the third-best away record in the West. It’d validate their status as a true playoff contender. If Phoenix covers despite Durant’s absence? That’s a red flag for the entire Western Conference. It suggests they’re deeper than anyone thought — or that Houston’s defense is more fragile than advertised.The over/under is the real battleground. With both teams averaging over 118 points per game in their last 10 matchups, and the historical average being 225.96 points, the 222.5 line feels low. The computer model’s projection of 233.6 points? That’s not a stretch. If the game hits 230+, it’ll be the highest-scoring Rockets-Suns game since 2023.
Historical Context: A Rivalry Reborn
These two teams have met 47 times since 2008. The Rockets have won 29 of those — 18 as the away team. Their 148-109 blowout in March 2025 still echoes in locker rooms. That game was a statement: Houston’s youth could outpace Phoenix’s veteran core. Now, with Durant gone, the same script could repeat. But this time, Phoenix has a new identity — one built on grit, not glamour. And they’ve shown they can win ugly.Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kevin Durant’s absence affect Phoenix’s chances?
Without Durant, Phoenix’s offensive rating drops from 118.7 to 109.3 — a 9.4-point decline. They’ve lost all three games this season when Durant sat and were favored by 5+ points. His absence removes their most reliable scorer in clutch moments and weakens their perimeter defense, leaving the Rockets’ guards with open looks.
Why is the public betting so heavily on the Rockets?
Public bettors are reacting to Houston’s 11-4 record and the Suns’ missing star. But history shows this is misleading: Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games against Houston, even as underdogs. Smart money is watching the trend, not the record.
Is Alperen Sengun’s prop bet a good value?
Yes. Sengun has hit OVER 40.5 PRA in five of his last seven games, and against Phoenix, he’s averaged 41.1 PRA over the last three meetings. With Durant out, the Suns lack a true rim protector, and Sengun’s footwork and passing make him nearly impossible to contain in isolation or pick-and-roll.
What’s the most likely outcome: Rockets win outright or Suns cover?
Based on trends, the Suns covering +6.5 is more likely than Houston winning outright. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, and Phoenix has covered +9.5 in eight of their last nine home games against Houston. Even with Durant out, the Suns’ defensive structure and home-court advantage make them dangerous against the spread.
Should I bet the over or under?
Bet the over. The average total in their last 10 meetings is 225.96. Both teams play fast — Houston averages 102.3 possessions per game, Phoenix 101.1. With Durant out, Phoenix will push tempo to compensate, and Houston’s guards will exploit mismatches. The 222.5 line is too low.
When and where can I watch the game?
The game tips off at 9:40pm Eastern Time on November 24, 2025, at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. It’ll air on Sports Talk 790AM and stream live on Peacock starting at 2:30am UTC on November 25. For U.S. viewers, that’s 9:30pm Eastern — same as the tip-off.
